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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It frequently functions as a type of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the biggest resurgence is handed the award. However, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or just the most shocking shock.

Yet this year's competition is distinctly unique. The list of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference winners falling away and longtime underperformers rising collectively. During an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and fun season, he's competing with five other elite candidates.

This is how the ideal vote ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the runaway choice. Yet this isn't a normal season!

Where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still